Re: Yearlong County Contest Discussion Thread

[Kalisiin]

Thank you. I feel much better than I have in well over a week now, but I'm still a long way away from fully recovered.
Pneumonia as badly as I had it really kicks your ass.

[dctim]

Is it permissible for me to claim counties for Markus?

He does not weigh in on the BBs often and it looks like he has a number of new counties since his last post. Just in Feb, there are potentially 25 new counties that he received.

[dctim]

Is it permissible for me to claim counties for Markus?

He does not weigh in on the BBs often and it looks like he has a number of new counties since his last post. Just in Feb, there are potentially 25 new counties that he received.

For what it's worth, here is what I pulled out of Markus' 2011 hits that qualify. I will copy and paste the links if you will count these for him.

02/27/2011 19th State Connecticut,51th County New Haven in CT $1 bill serial:A08*****7G series:2006
02/27/2011 50th County Miami-Dade in FL $5 bill serial:HF0*****53B series:2006
02/26/2011 49th County Harris in TX $1 bill serial:F42*****1N series:2006
02/25/2011 18th State Arkansas,48th County Marion in AR $1 bill serial:E32*****6D series:2006
02/24/2011 47th County Lafayette in LA $5 bill serial:IK0*****75A series:2006
02/21/2011 45th County Lubbock in TX $1 bill serial:B11*****4N series:2006
02/21/2011 44th County Portsmouth in VA $1 bill serial:D82*****6C series:2006
02/18/2011 43th County Shelby in TN $1 bill serial:B51*****0D series:2003A
02/15/2011 17th State Iowa,41th County Woodbury in IA $20 bill serial:EF4*****40D series:2004
02/15/2011 40th County Norfolk in VA $1 bill serial:F47*****0A series:2006
02/15/2011 39th County Coffee in AL $5 bill serial:IK0*****32A series:2006
02/12/2011 38th County Sacramento in CA $1 bill serial:F09*****1L series:2006
02/12/2011 37th County Wagoner in OK $1 bill serial:K16*****9B series:1999
02/11/2011 16th State Tennessee,36th County Davidson in TN $1 bill serial:F38*****8S series:2006
02/10/2011 15th State Oklahoma,35th County Comanche in OK $1 bill serial:L44*****2N series:2003A
02/08/2011 33th County Hillsborough in FL $1 bill serial:F90*****4L series:2006
02/08/2011 32th County Hampton in VA $1 bill serial:K66*****0C series:2009
02/05/2011 30th County Hidalgo in TX $1 bill serial:C30*****0F series:2006
02/05/2011 29th County Suffolk in VA $20 bill serial:IL9*****78D series:2006
02/01/2011 1st Hit $5 Bill,27th County Jim Wells in TX $5 bill serial:IH1*****11A series:2006
01/30/2011 24th County Travis in TX $1 bill serial:L70*****2A series:2009
01/30/2011 23th County Davidson in NC $1 bill serial:A18*****3A series:2009
01/29/2011 13th State New Jersey,22th County Atlantic in NJ $1 bill serial:E20*****7D series:2006
01/28/2011 12th State South Carolina,21th County York in SC $1 bill serial:B15*****4E series:2006
01/24/2011 20th County Perquimans in NC $1 bill serial:F18*****5R series:2006
01/23/2011 11th State Alabama,19th County Jefferson in AL $1 bill serial:A18*****8A series:2009
01/20/2011 10th State Florida,18th County Lake in FL $1 bill serial:A18*****5A series:2009
01/20/2011 9th State Louisiana,17th County Plaquemines in LA $1 bill serial:H91*****8B series:2006
01/19/2011 16th County Wake in NC $1 bill serial:A18*****2A series:2009
01/19/2011 15th County Hays in TX $1 bill serial:B31*****7J series:2006

[Kalisiin]

Is it permissible for me to claim counties for Markus?

He does not weigh in on the BBs often and it looks like he has a number of new counties since his last post. Just in Feb, there are potentially 25 new counties that he received.

No, that is not permissible.

He must post them himself.
Drop him a note and ask him to.

I'm going to email him about this.

EDIT: Just dropped him an email about it.

[dctim]

Sample table - comments welcome:

As of 03/21/2010	# Claimed	Joined	Entered	T pts	Hit %	Time	Entry	T pts	Hit %	West ?	Avg	Score
Kalisiin	50	2010	3,795	4,361	8.1 %	1.00	1.08	1.08	0.93	1.00	1.018	50.90
Markus	48	2008	15,531	18,634	7.7 %	0.90	0.98	0.98	0.95	1.00	0.962	46.18
dctim	23	2009	3,960	5,046	10.6 %	0.90	1.08	1.05	0.90	1.00	0.986	22.68
Jackson S.	15	2010	3,365	3,448	1.8 %	1.00	1.08	1.08	1.10	1.00	1.052	15.78
D. Dave	9	2009	10,844	11,107	4.3 %	0.90	1.00	1.00	1.03	1.40	1.066	9.59
Tony	T.B.D.	2010	18,330	20,392	6.7 %	1.00	0.98	0.95	0.98	1.40	1.062	0.00

[Kalisiin]

I would eliminate all the columns except the avg. which would be the total weighting.

I'm looking for simplicity.

[dctim]

I'm really liking the colorized map - thanks!

[Kalisiin]

I'm really liking the colorized map - thanks!

I like it too. And no thanks are necessary...it is a labor of love.

I'm hoping that this will draw more folks to the Forums...and to TD. and to the contest! the more the merrier! Besides, if the prize pool gets big enough, maybe we can have a first and second place!

[Kalisiin]

Personally, I am beginning to think the West Bonus was a REAL BAD IDEA...it is going to create a runaway for Tony at this rate. HE doesn't NEED this bonus...DAVE does.

This was intended to help DAVE...not someone who does not need any help and would do quite well on his own.

If it cannot be changed this year...if the majority won't allow that...then...NEXT YEAR...by God, nobody over 10,000 track Points gets that freaking West Bonus.

Sorry, but Tony DOES NOT NEED THIS EXTRA BOOST...HIS BILLS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE.

[Tony]

Go ahead and take the west bonus out for me. I've literally traded thousands of bills with airline coworkers. My bills have been spent all over the country. Whenever someone is going on vacation, I trade as many bills with them as they are willing to trade. So, if you believe that will even things out, please remove it for me, but leave it in for Dave.

Tony

[Kalisiin]

Thank you for understanding this, Tony.

I certainly do not mind if you win, but I just do not see you needing help...in light of the way your bills travel, and your already-impressive stats.

I don't want to create a runaway, and it is looking like you're capable of a runaway...even without the West Bonus.

And, just for the record, everyone...if I DO win...the vast majority of my winnings will end up back with Markus, in TD-marked bills, to support this site...so, for me it is not about who wins, or if I win...but I want a fair, close contest. And I am thinking the West bonus will cause Tony to have a runaway.

If everyone has no objection, I would like to institute the rule about the West Bonus I mentioned...nobody over 10,000 Track Points gets or needs it...their bills have had plenty of chance to get everywhere...like Tony's have.

Tony himself has no objection, and Markus and I have been in communication about this as well.

The next update will reflect this change. Dave will keep the West Bonus.

[Kalisiin]

We have a new leader in the County Contest...tony has pulled into the lead by one tenth of a point.

Now THAT's the sort of race I'm looking for!!

Next year will be much easier to handicap, because I can do it on past performance, and use the weighting scale only for new entrants.

Next year will be handicap 90% of 200 for example. Now, this is how they handicap you in bowling. I'm a league bowler, have been for years, and I carry a 144 average. The way my handicap is determined, on a 90% of 200 league is like this...200 minus 144 equals 56. My handicap is 90% of 56 - or 51.4, rounded to 51.

Everyone who participates next year...who has a score from last year, will be handicapped in this manner. They will NOT have a weight. all hits will equal 1. But you will get a starting score - your handicap...which will go up by one for each hit. Only new participants will be weighted.

We will use the highest 100 number needed so that everyone gets some handicap. For example, if Tony has the most hits with 456...we would use a handicap of 90% of 500. If I thus got 412 hits that year...my handicap for the next year would be 90% of 88 or 79. So I would start with a 79 score. Tony, meanwhile...would get 90% of 44 or 40 (39.6 rounded). so I'd have my advantage over Tony, in this scenario, at the start of the year...and it is based on the last year's performance.

Because it is 90 %...Tony STILL has a slight advantage to win the next year. But it makes things a lot closer.

If, in the same scenario, then, dcTim got 252 hits...he would get a handicap of 90% of 248 - 223.2 or, actually, 223 rounded. So he would start at 223 - where I started at 79 and Tony at 40. BUT...BASED ON THE LAST YEAR PERFORMANCE...WE SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE AT THE END OF THE YEAR. Which is the whole objective. We want it close. No runaways. Everyone having a legitimate chance to win.

[Tony]

Just some ideas that might help keep this a contest for the year, especially if Aaron and/or Darrel decide to jump in on this:

1. Split the Year Joined, for 2010, to the 1st and 2nd half of the year. The 1st half has a value of 0.95 and the 2nd half stays at 1.0.

2. Change the scoring on Bills Entered and Track Points to 0.04 for each tier. It's a bigger bonus/penalty on each end of the scale.

3. Make the West Bonus up to 15,000. Capped at 10,000, I don't think it's helping anyone.

[Kalisiin]

Just some ideas that might help keep this a contest for the year, especially if Aaron and/or Darrel decide to jump in on this:

1. Split the Year Joined, for 2010, to the 1st and 2nd half of the year. The 1st half has a value of 0.95 and the 2nd half stays at 1.0.

2. Change the scoring on Bills Entered and Track Points to 0.04 for each tier. It's a bigger bonus/penalty on each end of the scale.

3. Make the West Bonus up to 15,000. Capped at 10,000, I don't think it's helping anyone.

I may consider these steps. However, at this moment, only yourself and Dave even qualify, geographically, for the West Bonus...and I thought to cut it of at 10K...so as to let Dave still have it...and you, Tony, to not have it, since you really do not need it.

I am TRYING as best I can...to make this a level, fair competition where everyone stands a chance at winning. without any real stats to work with, it is a little difficult to handicap this fairly.

I will see what others in the contest think of your ideas...I like them, we can try it, anyway...so let's hear some more input...

[Tony]

I'm not wanting or looking for the West bonus. Dave has 11,242 bills entered and 11,518.94 Track Points. Capping the bonus at 10,000, doesn't help him either, and that, from my understanding, was the whole point of it.

[Kalisiin]

I'm not wanting or looking for the West bonus. Dave has 11,242 bills entered and 11,518.94 Track Points. Capping the bonus at 10,000, doesn't help him either, and that, from my understanding, was the whole point of it.

Point taken. The cap should be 15,000...and I just may take it back to 1.4, seeing as how you aren't getting it. The thing I am trying to do here is to run a contest where everyone has a chance, it's close at the end, and there is no runaway.

The problem is...without any previous stats to go by, it's tough to really fairly handicap.

I mean, look at Dave, or even dcTim...what chances have they got...given the current standings? Or even Jackson Stamper?

It's gonna be you, me or Markus, most likely...unless Darrel or Aaron jump in...in which case I think the prize pool becomes large enough to consider a second place prize.

And I suspect it's gonna be you...and by a landslide, which I'm trying to avoid. It's okay if you...or anyone else wins...I just don't want it to be a runaway.

Next year will be much better, because I can handicap based on the previous year totals.

[dctim]

I have an idea for a new factor to plug into the "Score" equation:

Claimed Counties divided by Total Hits recieved for the Year.

My official Claimed Counties according to the spreadsheet is 26, my Total Hits for the Year so far is 65.

That would give me an extra 0.4 factor weight in the equation. I suspect Tony's would be lower, thus "handicapping" him.

Of course, if that proved to be too cumbersome or if it gave Tony an even higher advantage, it obviously won't be adopted.

[dctim]

Here is an idea for next year -- keep a column in your spreadsheet of when a particular county was hit in 2011.

I think it would be interesting to see if populous places get hit sooner or if the weirdness that can be currency tracking forces some major metro area to remain silient for a long time.

[Kalisiin]

Here is an idea for next year -- keep a column in your spreadsheet of when a particular county was hit in 2011.

I think it would be interesting to see if populous places get hit sooner or if the weirdness that can be currency tracking forces some major metro area to remain silient for a long time.

It's enough just to keep track of the current year.
If you'd like to maintain such a spreadsheet, feel free.

[dctim]

Handicapping -- I'm not really seeing a need for it. Even if there were, I'm not sure how we would do it.

A total of 394 Counties claimed as of the June 22 update. The total (sum) of everyone's contest score? 394.3768

This tells me that the ratios are about where they should be. If you want to tweek the Bills Entered ratios, go for it.

However, the biggest differences are the "how those bills get spent". Tony puts, on average, 2,000 bills per month into circulation. If he trades them to his friends who are airline employees, they are going to go quite a ways and are going to be seen by a very diverse population. Tony is getting 100 hits a month (2,000 * 5 % Hit Rate), PLUS they are being released in the communities where his buddies spend them.

Kalisiin is averaging near 550 bills entered per month, a quarter of Tony's. Her Hit rate is not quite double his, but over all, she is getting HALF as many hits per month. Yet, she is staying "relatively" close in the contest due to the density of counties in the Eastern US.

[Kalisiin]

Handicapping -- I'm not really seeing a need for it. Even if there were, I'm not sure how we would do it.

A total of 394 Counties claimed as of the June 22 update. The total (sum) of everyone's contest score? 394.3768

This tells me that the ratios are about where they should be. If you want to tweek the Bills Entered ratios, go for it.

However, the biggest differences are the "how those bills get spent". Tony puts, on average, 2,000 bills per month into circulation. If he trades them to his friends who are airline employees, they are going to go quite a ways and are going to be seen by a very diverse population. Tony is getting 100 hits a month (2,000 * 5 % Hit Rate), PLUS they are being released in the communities where his buddies spend them.

Kalisiin is averaging near 550 bills entered per month, a quarter of Tony's. Her Hit rate is not quite double his, but over all, she is getting HALF as many hits per month. Yet, she is staying "relatively" close in the contest due to the density of counties in the Eastern US.

But, look at it. tony has 115 hit counties...to my 95...to your 40!!
You have no chance and neither do I.

We might as well close the contest now and declare Tony the winner.

No...the way the handicaps will be done...let's take the numbers we have at the moment..

Assume Tony ends with 115 at June 30. We extrapolate out from this that he would end up with 230.
I have 95 - we would extrapolate out that I end up with 190.
You, Tim, have 40...we would extrapolate 80 for you.

NOW...the difference between 230 and 190 = 40. The difference between 80 and 230 is 150.

The handicap, then, would be set at 95% of the difference.
So my handicap would be 95% of 40 - or 38. Yours would be 95 percent of 150.. - or 142.5

Now...since we are currently at half-year... I would add a handicap of 19 (half of 38) to me - and a handicap of 71.25 (half of 142.5) to you.
We do that, in conjuction with the current weightings. Next year, we would just use handicaps...but this year we can't, because we don't have real numbers we can use. The weightings ARE NOT WORKING...because Tony and I are burying everyone else. No one else stands a chance. the way it is now, tony = first place, me = second place...everyone else...no chance.

Now...we look at it again in September, and adjust again if it needs it.

But...for right now...lt's look at what happens to the current scores...if we add in the handicaps...

Tony = 115.8375
Me = 120.3365
Tim = 112.718

You see how it is now MUCH closer...and you have an actual chance.
Yeah, this bumps tony out of first for the moment...I doubt he would have a lot to worry about, he is still outpacing the hell out of us, and would likely end up in first again.

But...in the above example, just with us three...there's only 8 points of difference. Right now there is 74 points between you and Tony.

You still see no need for handicaps??

Let's do this quick for all six players...

Tony year end assumed total = 230
Kalisiin = 190
Markus = 150
Jackson = 88
Tim = 80
Dave = 30

So, the differences =
Kalisiin = 40
Markus = 80
Jackson = 142
Tim = 150
Dave = 200

So the handicaps become like this

Kalisiin = 38 (half - year = 19 ...add on in Sept and in Dec for 38 total at year end)
Markus = 76 (half - year = 38 ...add on in Sept and in Dec for 76 total at year end)
Jackson = 134.9 ( half - year = 67.45 .....)
Tim = 142.5 (half year = 71.25...)
Dave = 190 (half - year = 95...)

Now...let's look at the standings adding these handicaps:

Tony = 115.8375
Kalisiin = 120.3365 (BTW, I am likely to have my weighting lowered by year-end as I will pass new threshholds)
Tim = 112.718
Jackson = 114.3848
Markus = 111.5000
Dave = 110.3000

Now there are just 10 points separating ALL of us!!
And if you disregard my score...only 5 points!! And I say disregard mine, as my weighting factor is likely to go down by year-end...as I will likely surpass th threshholds for that to happen...which will serve to lower my score somewhat.

In either case...it gets everyone much closer, and gives folks all an actual chance of winning.

Fact is...I'll be including a total-year handicap in the scores. so Tony will lose a lot of ground. But he'll also make it up. and, like I said...we can look at it again in September, at 3/4 thru the year.

Fact is...I have had to do stuff like this in order to balance and handicap as best I can...without any REAL numbers to work with.
The weightings WOULD have worked out...but tony blew those out of the water...the weightings did not take certain factors into account...like tony's instant change machine at an airport that gets his bills all over the freaking place.

Hey, if you want the power users to just run away with it...then why get into it at all?

Fact is...this will benefit every player except possibly, at the outset, Tony. but I also believe Tony will not have much problem overcoming it...he buries us all.

Fact is...this will at least make Second place...a contest. Because I will likely not keep up the pace I had last month, my vacation bills have gotten me about as much as I expect to get out of them.

At any rate...you see where the handicaps make EVERYONE much closer than they currently are.

and everyone (or at least a najority) already agreed to the handicaps.

I'm doing the best I possibly can to keep this thing competitive, give everyone a chance, and prevent a runaway.

Or, like I said...if you prefer, we could just declare tony and m the winners right now...because that's how it currently looks. tony first, me second. Everyone else is way back from us two. Markus, my closest competitor, is nearly 30 points behind me. And I am 14 points behind Tony.

that tells me the current weightings are NOT working as I had intended...to make for a close contest.

[Sponsored content]