Yearlong County Contest

I claim Union County, OR.

Jackson Stamper wrote:I'll Take Onondaga County, New York

Nice one! Shoulda been mine, I'm AMAZED I haven't hit Onondaga this year yet...but I must not have...

I'll sneak down tim's way and grab

Washington County, MD

Kalisiin wrote:I'll sneak down tim's way and grab

Washington County, MD

Nice grab. Washington county is one of those curious ones (along with Caroline in VA and MD) that my bills prefer to ignore.

However, every once in awhile, they do get to Carroll, county, MD

dctim wrote:

Kalisiin wrote:I'll sneak down tim's way and grab

Washington County, MD

Nice grab. Washington county is one of those curious ones (along with Caroline in VA and MD) that my bills prefer to ignore.

However, every once in awhile, they do get to Carroll, county, MD

Good. Hey, didja notice I also just recently got Caroline in VA?

I'll take Jefferson County, TN
with this hit in Strawberry Plains, Tennessee.
I just like the name of the town.

I claim Westmoreland County, PA.

Delaware shall be colored entirely pink with this hit in
Sussex County, Delaware

I'll Take Muskegon County, Michigan

I claim Ramsey County, MN.

I will take
Washington County, GA

OK, Handicaps time!!
The next update will include handicaps.

The handicaps ARE subject to change at the end of September again, if they are not working as they should.

Because we do not have accurate numbers for an entire year, this is a half-year estimate. Because we are not certain of full-year figures, we will use weightings in conjunction with handicaps.

Because we ARE using weighting in conjunction with handicap, we will use sliding handicaps this year. Next year, when we are not using weightings, we will use 95% handicaps. Sliding handicaps are based on the amount of difference between the leader...and the player. the higher the difference, the bigger percentage their handicap will be based on.

I looked on everyone's sheets to see what counties could be claimed by June 30, whether or not they were yet claimed...in order to set handicaps - this so that no one could hold back in order to get a better handicaps (i.e. game the system)

As a result, here are totals effective 6/30
Tony has 131
Kalisiin has 103
Markus has 84 (he has 75 claims, and I found 9 that he CAN claim and hasn't yet.)
Tim has 41
Jackson has 47
Dave has 15

Therefore, we extrapolate for a year, and assume

Tony 262
Kali 206 (-56) 55% handicapping
Markus 168 (-94) 75% handicapping
Tim 82 (-180) 80% handicapping
Jackson 94 (-168) 80% handicapping
Dave 30 (-232) 80% handicapping

Yes, it is likely no one is going to do as good second half as fist, since many easy counties are taken. But the situation will be the same for everyone else, too. So, we make the assumption.

Now, a 75% handicap means that everyone is handicapped at 75% of the difference between their own score, and the score of the leader. 85% of course, means 85% of difference and so on. Tony, as the leader, automatically gets a 12 handicap (1 point per month).

So the following are handicaps for everyone else...

Kali = 30.80
Markus = 70.50
Tim = 144.00
Jackson = 134.40
Dave = 185.60

Now...so that scores will not be lopsided, handicap will be broken down monthly...and added on the first of each month - the first sheet will have seven months of handicap in there (Jan - July) on Aug 1, everyone is then awarded 1/12 of their total yearly handicap, etc.

SO...monthly handicap breakdown as follows...

Tony = 1.00 per month (7.00 first seven months)
Kali = 2.567 per month (17.969 first seven months)
Markus = 5.875 per month (41.125)
Tim = 12.00 per month (84.00)
Jackson = 11.20 per month (78.40)
Dave = 15.467 per month (108.269)

Now, if we assume the weightings have not changed since last update, and counting everyone's score as if they had what they should by June 30, we have this with the weightings alone...

Tony = 121.3977
Kali = 109.8701
Markus = 82.3200
Tim = 42.5047
Jackson = 50.1349
Dave = 15.3000

Now, adding the seven-month handicap to this we get

Tony = 128.3977
Kali = 127.8391
Markus = 123.445
Tim = 126.5047
Jackson = 128.5349
Dave = 123.5690

This results in Jackson taking first place for now, by 0.1372 points. Tony in second. I would now be in third place. there is about a total of 5 points between first place and last place.
This makes EVERYTHING much closer. And gives everyone a chance.

I had to do sliding handicaps, based on closeness to the leader - every other scenario I tried unfairly punished Tony...unfairly rewarded me - and put ME as the one then running away with it...which is to be avoided, I want NO-ONE to run away with this, not even me.

I will note that this scenario currently puts me out of prize running, in Third place instead of my current second place. So it is really the fairest I can come up with all the way around.

SO...the next update will include handicaps. This will, as you can see...bring everyone much closer in competition.

Obviously, the final numbers on next update will be a bit different since I do not plan an update for about a week - and weightings and total number of claims will change.

This is a snapshot of what an update right now would look like - also assuming no weighting changes were needed.
In either case, everyone is much closer now. which is what I wanted.

I place claim on
Wayne County, NC

I claim Peoria County, IL.

I believe this is the first bill to visit Wincester city, VA this year.

I claim Bureau County, IL.

I'll take Lapeer County, Michigan

I'll have
Cook County, Georgia

Too bad it isn't Illinois I can claim, since I was born in Cook County, ILLINOIS....

I'll take Clinton County, Michigan

I claim The Island of Guam.

Tony wrote:I claim The Island of Guam.

Very freaking nice!!

By the way, on the subject of handicaps...it seems to me that we will most likely HAVE to re-adjust them at end of Sept, and end of year...otherwise, someone like Dave will be getting massive plusses every month while everything dries up for the rest of us.

I claim the following counties:

Santa Cruz County, AZ
Harris County, GA

I claim Adair County, MO.

Tony wrote:I claim the following counties:

Santa Cruz County, AZ
Harris County, GA

Now just HTF did you manage Harris County, GA, before me...when my vacation took me thru there (My nephew graduated from Harris County High School!!)

Yesterday was a very good day in TrackDollar Land for me.